Ceasing…something, in Syria

I am working without wi-fi, so this is going to be shorter than I’d like. But there’s major news about the civil war, and it’s good bad just okay puppies completely incomprehensible:

MUNICH — The United States, Russia and other powers agreed to a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria’s civil war, to take place within the next week, and immediate humanitarian access into besieged areas, Secretary of State John F. Kerry announced here early Friday morning.

“It was unanimous,” Kerry said of a communique issued after hours of meetings among participants in a group of nations that have supported and armed one side or the other in the four-year war. “Everybody today agreed,” he said. But the proof of commitment will come only with implementation. “What we have here are words on paper,” Kerry said. “What we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground.”

It was unanimous! We’re ceasing hostilities! No more war!

Wait, I’m sorry, there’s more to the article:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the projected date for ending at least some of his country’s airstrikes in Syria is a week from Friday, but he emphasized that “terrorist” groups would continue to be targeted, including the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, an affiliate of al-Qaeda’s in Syria that is involved in the fight against President Bashar al-Assad. The group in some instances fights alongside rebel forces supported by the United States and its allies.

So we’ve agreed that a week from tomorrow Russia might end “at least some” of its airstrikes in Syria, but it will continue to target “terrorist groups,” which Russia defines narrowly as “anybody we don’t like,” or, alternatively, “everybody we’re already striking.” Welcome to the new hostility-free Syria. Plus ça change, etc.

The determination of eligible targets and geographic areas is to be left up to a task force of nations, headed by Russia and the United States, that will adjudicate differences of opinion. It is expected but by no means guaranteed that signatories to the agreement will be able to persuade their proxies and allies on the ground, including Assad and the hundreds of opposition groups fighting against him, to honor the terms.

Russia and the US will lead a task force to determine eligible targets, which is an arrangement that sounds stable enough to last a good day or maybe even two, and whatever the task force decides can be freely ignored by forces on the ground. I mean, the only thing that separates me from being named Pope is an inability to persuade proxies and allies on the ground to honor the terms of my appointment. This seems like it might be a lot to expect. You’ll note that none of those allies and proxies were actually party to negotiating this arrangement.

It looks like this deal, whatever it is, came together because there was some movement from the US on collaborating with Russia beyond simply avoiding each other’s air space, but Kerry and Lavrov seem to have substantially different public interpretations of what that means. That, plus the fact that Assad’s position is much safer than it was when the Russians started bombing last fall, seems to have made Moscow more amenable to talking things out.

Lavrov talked about this being the first step toward a ceasefire, and if it seems strange to you that we’re ceasing hostilities but still trading fire, you’re not the only one (“hey, we’re going to keep bombing you, but from now on our hearts won’t really be in it”). But it doesn’t actually sound like anybody is prepared to fully cease either the hostilities or the firing, so we’re left with something shy of that. This is how diplomats talk.

The clear positive here, if this deal actually works as intended, is the humanitarian component. Syrians are still starving to death under literal siege (and many more in Aleppo are now at risk of being besieged), so the need is desperate. But many of them are being beseiged by ISIS, which is obviously not party to the arrangement, in Deir Ezzor. And there are still so many things that have to come together for this deal to actually hold up that I’m not sure to what extent people in Madaya and Kefraya can rely on it.

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