The wrong guy dropped out

You won’t find any tears for Scott Walker’s abandoned presidential campaign here.

But if these most recent PPP poll’s results are to be believed, maybe Walker wasn’t the one who should have dropped out in the name of “winnowing the field” (i.e., consolidating the non-Trump vote):

Trump is doing pretty poorly in head to head match ups in Iowa, and that’s something to keep an eye on as more people drop out of the race. He leads Bush 51/37 but beyond that he trails Carson 60/33, Fiorina 54/36, Rubio 53/38, and he trailed Walker 51/37. Walker supporters preferred Carson over Trump 68/26, Rubio over Trump 66/31, Fiorina over Trump 59/28, and even Bush over Trump 48/36. As more people drop out there may be a closing of the field around Trump’s remaining foes.

Assuming the Trump wave somehow survives the 397 months between now and Iowa, he’s going to need to win there to avoid the sudden appearance of vulnerability. But apparently his support there maxes out in the mid-30s against everybody except one person: JEB.

Walker’s withdrawal will help to consolidate the anti-Trump vote in Iowa, and more importantly it frees up some big money donors to back a candidate with a better chance (or any chance, really) of winning the nomination, like Rubio. It’s not like Walker was going anywhere but down the drain anyway. But if there’s anybody whose path to the nomination is closing fast, it’s JEB, not Walker. RCP has him polling in third place in the state he used to govern, which, I mean, that’s pretty bad.

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