Is there an operation to retake Mosul in the works?

Based on comments from Iraq’s Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Al Jazeera is reporting that the Iraqi military has begun preparations for an operation to liberate Mosul from ISIS control:

The Iraqi government has set up an operations room for the liberation of the city, Zebari said, adding that success of the offensive depended on coordination between Iraqi forces and the US-led international coalition.

Zebari, who is from Mosul, said he did not agree with predictions by US officials that the fight against ISIL could take years.

“Contrary to what many people think, I don’t think this will be a long drawn-out battle,” the finance minister said.

Zebari is being pretty optimistic here. Retaking Mosul would be a serious blow to ISIS and a real milestone in the effort to roll back their territorial gains, but province-wise ISIS has always been better entrenched in Anbar (though even that may be slipping, see below) than it has been in either Saladin or Nineveh (where Mosul is located). It will be harder to defeat and eliminate the group there. ISIS also still has a lot of economic power to buy loyalty, and the societal divisions that were exposed so detrimentally when Nouri al-Maliki was in charge of the country are still raw. It wouldn’t take much for Iraq’s current run of success to reverse itself.

But it’s indisputable that ISIS is on the defensive in Iraq right now, and it’s possible (though not likely) that their end (in Iraq, at least in any significant numbers) could come fairly quickly. I’ve noted this repeatedly over the past few weeks. About ten days ago McClatchey reported that ISIS has cut off cellular service in Mosul and parts of Anbar because they were concerned that locals were tipping off Iraqi officials who were then giving the information to U.S. commanders for targeting purposes. Now there are reports that Sunni tribes are organizing and arming themselves to combat ISIS, and ISIS is reportedly being forced to recapture towns in Anbar after the tribes in those towns “liberated” them. If ISIS is confronting serious tribal rebellions in Anbar, then they’re in pretty big trouble.