The Guardian, citing "a source in Iraq with connections to the terror group," is reporting that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is no longer in day-to-day control of ISIS, and hasn't been since he was seriously wounded in an airstrike in northern Iraq about a month ago. The astute reader will recall that it's been about three … Continue reading Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is seriously wounded, again, maybe

This must be the hottest trend in geopolitics in the 2010s. Remember when the Russians and the Ukrainians and the Russian separatists in Ukraine cut a ceasefire deal and then kept on firing? Well, their second go at it, in February, seems to be mostly holding for now, so that's good. On the other hand, … Continue reading Another non-ceasefire ceasefire

Details are still sketchy, but in general it sounds like Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi and the Houthis have reached some sort of deal whereby the Houthis will surrender their territorial gains in exchange for political reform/power sharing. This should be excellent news for everybody in Yemen except maybe Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, … Continue reading Hadi and the Houthis cut a deal?

The AP and Reuters have both reported in the past hour that the Saudi coalition is suspending its air campaign in Yemen and is moving its operations into a "new phase": A spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition targeting rebels in Yemen says the so-called "Decisive Storm" campaign is over, but that allies will launch a … Continue reading Saudi coalition, having accomplished nothing, declares victory (?) and bugs out

The Turkish government is going to allow its Armenian citizens to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the (let's call it what it was) Armenian Genocide on Friday, in an officially permitted religious service. Turkey has long resisted any suggestion that the Ottoman Empire's brutalization of its Armenian population in 1915 was a "genocide," despite the … Continue reading Turkey’s unexpected baby steps

It's been known for a while now that ISIS has been working, at least in Iraq, alongside many ex-Iraqi army officers and men, many of whom took to fighting the American occupation after they were purged from the army by Paul Bremer's "De-Baʿathification" orders in 2003. But a report from the German weekly Der Spiegel … Continue reading Laying responsibility for ISIS right at America’s door

I write a lot about Iran and the nuclear deal, and though I try not to let that writing shade into a defense of Iran's generally awful government, I'm sure it happens from time to time, especially when I'm responding to whatever belligerent nonsense the "Bomb Bomb Iran" camp has put out. But let's be … Continue reading The crime of practicing journalism

The European Union is watching hundreds, thousands really, of refugees drown attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea rather than risk the possibility that those refugees might try to remain in the EU rather than return to the places from which they're fleeing. This appears to be the 2015 world order, where wealthy nations get to … Continue reading Criminal negligence on a continental scale

When it comes to the Middle East, the United States has had one overarching concern since the end of the Cold War and its attendant Great Power gamesmanship: countering and/or preventing extremist violence that threatens America or American interests. That's obviously been especially true since 9/11, when it became clear that the biggest near-term threat … Continue reading Saudi Arabia’s self-fulfilling prophecy

Lots of media outlets are jumping today on an Iraqi media report that Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, the nominal head of the Iraqi Baʿath Party ("nominal" because the Baʿath Party is legally banned in Iraq nowadays) and one of the leaders (or possibly the leader, or possibly just an occasional adviser) of the ISIS-aligned (sort of, at … Continue reading Say goodbye to the King of Clubs, allegedly