SYRIA
Somewhere in the neighborhood of 6500 people have fled Baghouz over the past two days, as the Syrian Democratic Forces militia assaults the last bit (sort of–see below) of Syrian territory still under ISIS control. Several hundred of those have been ISIS fighters, whom the SDF took into custody (there’s certainly a chance that some ISIS fighters slipped through the net). But it’s still unclear how many fighters and civilians remain in Baghouz, and the presence of the latter has caused the SDF to slow down its offensive.
In a vague comment written in marker on a copy of a letter sent to him by several members of Congress, Donald Trump appears to maybe suggest he now supports keeping some US soldiers in eastern Syria only about two and a half months after announcing that they were all going to be leaving. NBC is much more definitive than I’ve just been in its reporting, but this isn’t exactly definitive to me:
In a copy of the letter obtained by NBC News, Trump highlighted a paragraph in the letter about the U.S. goals in Syria, which said, “Like you, we seek to ensure that all of the gains made in Syria are not lost, that ISIS never returns, that Iran is not emboldened, and that we consolidate our gains and ensure the best outcome in Geneva for American interests.”
“I agree 100%. ALL is being done,” President Trump responded, writing directly on the letter and signing it.
That doesn’t necessarily mean he agrees 100 percent with leaving soldiers there. It doesn’t even mean he 100 percent understood the letter, or that he 100 percent was in full control of his faculties when he scribbled on it. But nevertheless it seems clear that at least a couple hundred US troops are staying. This represents a victory for John Bolton, who no doubt advocated for leaving soldiers in eastern Syria but also managed to get rid of former Defense Secretary James Mattis, an internal rival (more on this later), over the whole business. Mattis’s resignation, spurred by Trump’s announcement of a full withdrawal, now seems to have been for nothing. Though presumably he’s happy not to have to deal with Trump and Bolton anymore.
The Syrian military reportedly carried out airstrikes on Tuesday against ISIS targets near al-Sukhna, a town in a mostly desert region in central Syria. Syrian media didn’t go into much detail, but the strikes themselves highlight the fact that ISIS still has active units in other parts of the country outside of Baghouz.
YEMEN
The governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen are asking the United Nations Security Council to reprimand the Houthis for their failure to withdraw from the ports of Salif and Ras Issa as agreed under the terms of their mutual ceasefire/withdrawal agreement in Hudaydah. The Houthis agreed to quit the two smaller ports as a confidence building measure ahead of a joint withdrawal from Hudaydah, but haven’t followed through.
TURKEY
The Trump administration has decided to remove Turkey and India (more on that later) from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program. The GSP program is meant to support developing economies and allows their products to be imported duty-free into the US provided those countries provide equal access to their markets for US goods. In Turkey’s case, the administration says its economy no longer qualifies as “developing” and therefore it has to be removed from the program.
Meanwhile, the administration is also warning Ankara that if it follows through on its purchase of Russia’s advanced S-400 air defense system, it “will result in a reassessment of Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program and risk other potential future arm transfers to Turkey.” NATO commander and US Army General Curtis Scaparrotti told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that the US shouldn’t sell the F-35 to Turkey if it buys the S-400. There are security concerns selling the F-35 to a country in which Russian technical advisers are likely to be hanging around the air bases.
IRAQ
The US has levied sanctions against an Iranian-backed militia, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, that has been active in Syria and Iraq during the war against ISIS. HHN developed out of an Iraqi militia called Asaʿib Ahl al-Haq, which was active in the insurgency following the 2003 US invasion.
SAUDI ARABIA
The relationship between King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is reportedly getting testy, and the Saudi king is worried that his son might be making a play for the throne:
The unease is said to have been building since the murder in Turkey of the dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which the CIA has reportedly concluded was ordered by Prince Mohammed. However, these tensions increased dramatically in late February when the king, 83, visited Egypt and was warned by his advisers he was at risk of a potential move against him, according to a detailed account from a source.
His entourage was so alarmed at the possible threat to his authority that a new security team, comprised of more than 30 hand-picked loyalists from the interior ministry, was flown to Egypt to replace the existing team.
The move was made as part of a rapid response, and reflected concern that some of the original security staff might have been loyal to the prince, the source said.
The king’s advisers also dismissed Egyptian security personnel who were guarding him while he was in Egypt, the source added.
According to the Guardian, the recent personnel shuffle that saw MBS’s younger brother, Khalid, named deputy defense minister and Princess Reema bint Bandar bin Sultan sent to Washington to replace him as US ambassador was approved by MBS, not his father. Which is not to say that Salman didn’t approve of the change, just that MBS made it while he was serving as “deputy king” with his father in Egypt and did so in his own name, not in Salman’s. That’s not really how things are supposed to work in the Saudi court and suggests the prince has gotten a little too big for his britches. If he really is planning to make a move against his father he’ll probably need to do so soon in case other senior royals decide to align against him.
The Trump administration provided Congress with an update on its investigation into the Jamal Khashoggi murder on Monday. It was apparently not well-received:
“Worthless,” is how Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, described a classified update on the administration’s probe, which took place Monday.
“Miserable,” is what Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, called it.
Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called Monday’s briefing “a waste of time” and “a sham.”
The lackluster investigation may increase Congressional sentiment for penalizing the Saudis in some fashion.
The Foreign Exchanges Companion 