ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
Afghan peace talks may be approaching a breakthrough, but it’s come at a high cost. The United Nations says that 2018 was the deadliest year for civilians in at least the last decade, with 3804 killed:
In a report released Sunday, the United Nations attributed almost two-thirds of civilian casualties — 63 percent — to insurgent groups, primarily the Taliban and the Islamic State. Afghan and American forces were responsible for 24 percent — 14 percent by Afghan national security forces, 6 percent by American forces and 4 percent by government-backed armed groups. Responsibility for the rest could not be established.
The single biggest cause of civilian casualties was suicide bombings and related attacks by insurgents, the report found. The numbers of civilian casualties caused by suicide bombings and by American and Afghan government airstrikes were each the highest recorded since the United Nations issued its first report in 2009.
I’m not being hyperbolic when I say the talks may be on the verge of something big. Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is reportedly making his first trip to Doha since being released from Pakistani custody last year, ahead of another round of negotiations between the Taliban and US representatives on Monday. Baradar is technically the head of the Taliban’s Doha office, but he’s yet to actually go there and the fact that he’s going now suggests talks really could be heating up. Also promising: the US and Russia are reportedly working on ways to grant Taliban negotiators waivers to international travel restrictions, so they can attend further talks in places other than Qatar or Afghanistan.
KASHMIR
The Indian government ratcheted up its security crackdown in Kashmir over the weekend, which precipitated a gun battle in southern Kashmir on Sunday in which three Jaish-e-Mohammad fighters and two members of Indian security forces were killed. Extra security measures implemented since JEM’s February 14 strike that killed more than 40 Indian paramilitaries have reportedly led to fuel shortages in the province, though the Indian government says it will try to remedy that problem.
BANGLADESH
A man attempted to hijack an airplane headed from Dhaka to Dubai on Sunday, so the flight made an emergency landing at Chittagong. There it was boarded by Bangladeshi commandos, who killed the hijacker. From the way this story is being reported it seems like the hijacker was mentally unstable, but undoubtedly Bangladeshi authorities will be investigating for any links to international terrorism.
NEPAL
One person was killed and two wounded in a bombing outside the offices of the mobile network operator Ncell on Friday evening. No group has claimed responsibility and indeed there’s no sense yet as to motive.
CHINA
Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he’s delaying a planned increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, though he had set Friday as the deadline for a new trade agreement before those tariffs would go up. On Twitter, naturally, Trump cited the “substantial progress” made in talks so far for his decision to hold off. US and Chinese negotiators are reportedly at the stage where they’re talking about enforcement, which suggests they’re fairly close to a full agreement.
NORTH KOREA
Kim Jong-un is reportedly on a train to Hanoi for his February 27-28 summit with Trump, so I guess everything’s on schedule. Kim’s itinerary isn’t known, but it’s believed he’ll spend some time touring Vietnam to see how that whole “making nice with the US” thing is going for them these days.
As it’s unlikely anything especially significant will come out of this meeting–which is fine, the fact that they’re meeting at all is better than most of the alternatives–Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have accordingly spent the past couple of days downplaying expectations. There’s been a lot of talk about continuing negotiations and the possibility of a third summit, which is meant to prepare everybody for the lack of a breakthrough at this summit. South Korean officials are suggesting that Trump and Kim could formally end the Korean War, which would indeed be a significant development, but I think a “believe it when you see it” attitude would be appropriate here.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on Sunday swore in his new vice president–Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf–while his security forces tear gassed more protesters in Khartoum and Omdurman. The day before, Bashir appointed his new prime minister, Mohamed Tahir Ayala.
LIBYA
Libya’s National Oil Company says it has not yet reopened the country’s El Sharara oil field because, it says, the field is still occupied by an armed militia. The “Libyan National Army” claimed control of El Sharara earlier this month and subsequently turned it back over to the NOC, which lost control of the field to local fighters in December.
ALGERIA
Friday’s Algerian protests against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s plan to seek a fifth term in office in April’s election were apparently not a one-off thing. Hundreds of people hit the streets of Algiers again on Saturday, and again again on Sunday. Police responded, of course, with tear gas, water cannons, the usual “we respect the freedom to protest” package. Apart from Friday, when tens of thousands of people hit the streets, these protests haven’t been large or particularly disruptive, but that they’re happening at all is noteworthy and suggests Algerians are getting tired of the status quo.
SENEGAL
Senegalese President Macky Sall is claiming victory in Sunday’s presidential election, but several opposition candidates have suggested that preliminary results show the election heading to a runoff. Sall has presided over a growing economy and has jailed a couple of his most popular rivals, so his victory seems all but assured even if the vote does extend to a second round. Senegalese election officials will have to release official results by Friday.
MALI
Gunmen attacked a UN peacekeeping base in northern Mali on Sunday, killing at least eight Chadian peacekeepers. The attackers were presumably with JNIM (al-Qaeda’s Mali branch), though as far as I can tell nobody has claimed responsibility.
NIGERIA
Up to 39 people were killed on Saturday in violence related to Nigeria’s presidential election. Nigerian authorities say they arrested 128 people for various election related offenses. ISIS claimed responsibility for one election day attack, in Maiduguri, that the Nigerian government has not acknowledged actually took place. The results of the election, pitting President Muhammadu Buhari against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar among other challengers, haven’t been released yet.
ETHIOPIA
The Ethiopian government has begun tearing down some 12,000 homes it claims are on government-owned land on the outskirts of Addis Ababa. The homes, located in Ethiopia’s Oromia region, are being targeted as the Ethiopians look to expand their capital. Those expansion plans have triggered protests among Ethiopia’s Oromo community in the past and this move could well generate some new outrage.
SOMALIA
Osman Elmi Boqore, the oldest member of Somalia’s parliament, was shot and killed in Mogadishu on Saturday evening. Al-Shabab claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, US Africa Command says it undertook four airstrikes in Somalia over the weekend, targeting al-Shabab checkpoints around the country. It claims that the strikes killed two al-Shabab fighters and, of course, no civilians.
The Foreign Exchanges Companion 