Eid Mubarak!
ARMS SALES
This isn’t strictly about the Middle East, but since it probably affects this region more than any other I thought you might be interested in new work at Cato that attempts to create an objective assessment of the impact of US weapons sales:
In a recent study for the Cato Institute, however, we argue that the government’s approach to arms sales is misguided. The United States accepts as given the potential benefits of selling weapons while underestimating or simply ignoring the potential risks. The result has been too many arms sales to too many countries where the risks are likely to outweigh the benefits. Between 2002 and 2016, America delivered $197 billion worth of major conventional weapons, equipment, and training through its Foreign Military Sales program to 167 states worldwide. It is difficult to imagine what sort of process would rate so many of the world’s roughly 200 countries as safe bets to receive American weapons. Indeed, using a “risk index” we created to assess U.S. arms sales, we found that in this time period, the average dollar value of U.S. arms sales per nation to the riskiest states was higher than to the least risky states. Even more disturbing was our finding that 32 of the 167 recipients had risk index scores higher than the average score of the 16 nations currently banned from purchasing American weapons.
For the United States to make more responsible use of arms sales, the approval process needs to change. And though our initial study focused on arms sales, the logic is the same for arms transfers (where the United States provides weapons to states or groups at no cost). There are often compelling reasons to consider providing weapons even (and sometimes especially) to risky clients, but the United States should account more carefully for both the benefits and the costs. The easiest place to start is cases of sales and transfers to nations engaged in conflict, fragile states, or states with poor human rights records, as well as in cases that do not directly enhance American national security. In these cases, the approval process should be more transparent, the bar for approval should be higher, and the government should do more to monitor weapons after they are sold to better understand unintended consequences that may blunt the benefits of arms sales and undermine U.S. security.
Cato’s index considers a country’s fragility, its degree of repressiveness and political violence, and its involvement with terrorism and in conflicts to assess where arms sales are likely to do the most harm. It’s at least an interesting start on a system to make arms sales about something more than money and politics.
SYRIA
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the Syrian military shelled two rebel-held towns near the Golan on Friday, killing at least six people. This was both a provocative action close to the Israeli border and a pretty clear violation of the ceasefire that’s supposed to be in place in southwestern Syria. That’s the Russia and US-guaranteed ceasefire in southwestern Syria, the one the US warned Syria not to attack on Thursday. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said earlier this week that he wants to find a diplomatic solution to the rebels’ presence there, but will go with a military option if that doesn’t work.
YEMEN
Coalition fighters reportedly captured two entrances into Hudaydah’s airport on Friday, as their advance on Yemen’s largest port city continues. The coalition wants to take Hudaydah as quickly and with as little damage to its transportation infrastructure as possible in order to minimize the affect their widely criticized attack has on the movement of humanitarian aid into Yemen. As to the other big concern about an attack on a city of 250,000 people, it’s still too early for reports on civilian casualties. The United Arab Emirates has, according to the BBC, amassed a reserve force of Emirati, Yemeni, and Sudanese fighters in Eritrea that it’s planning to move into Hudaydah as part of the “final push” to take the city.
The United Nations Security Council considered a resolution condemning the coalition assault on Hudaydah and demanding a ceasefire on Friday, but it ultimately failed in the face of opposition from the United States and Britain. The UK of course is making huge money selling weapons to Saudi Arabia that totally for sure are definitely not being used in Yemen, while the US is…well, the Saudis projected Donald Trump’s bulbous head on the side of a hotel, I mean what do you want the man to do? In all seriousness though these two countries should be international pariahs. They should get at least as much condemnation for what they did today as they both routinely give Russia at the Security Council for actions that are considerably less offensive than this.
TURKEY
The Turkish military says that its airstrikes killed 26 PKK militants in northern Iraq earlier this week.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe says there are a lot of things wrong with the Turkish political process:
Just over one week before citizens of Turkey will go to the polls to elect a new president and parliament, a European monitor has flagged several concerns about the conduct of the campaign.
Holding the vote under the ongoing state of emergency could be “potentially jeopardizing the integrity of the election process,” read an interim report from the OSCE released on Friday.
Frankly I find it impossible to believe that the OSCE is flagging election concerns in Turkey, a stronghold of democracy whose leader, over his 15 consecutive years in power, has only imprisoned maybe half of its journalists and at best a third of its opposition political leaders. Impossible.
IRAQ
The Iraqi communists who partnered with Muqtada al-Sadr on his Sairoon list in last month’s election are apparently a little angry that he cut a coalition deal with Fatih list leader Hadi al-Amiri earlier this week. They seem to have little interest in joining a Shiʿa Islamist government and may leave him to go into the opposition, which won’t be a huge loss for Sadr.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Amnesty International is accusing the Palestinian Authority of a “vicious crackdown” against protesters in Ramallah earlier this week, and in particular of brutalizing an Amnesty employee who was observing the protest:
Philip Luther, Amnesty International’s Middle East and north Africa research and advocacy director said the PA “revealed a dark underbelly of violence and dysfunction” when its security forces “launched a vicious crackdown on peaceful protesters demonstrating against sanctions on Gaza”.
He said security officers, many plainclothed, assaulted and arrested dozens of demonstrators and bystanders and beat them while they were in custody.
“Laith Abu Zayed spent several hours in police custody where he was severely beaten. Upon his release, he recalled seeing 18 other fellow detainees receive the same treatment,” said Luther, who called for an independent investigation.
Local Call’s Rami Younis has more:
Having just witnessed her friend’s arrest, and frustrated by her failure to prevent it, a young activist stood in front of a line of police officers, defenseless, and instinctively shouted, “With spirit, with blood, we’ll redeem you Gaza.” Members of the Palestinian security forces, dressed in civilian clothes, knocked her to the ground. Two policemen joined in and began kicking the bleeding, terrified woman.
This was just one of the many scenes of violence meted out by the Palestinian Authority’s security forces against Palestinian demonstrators who had gathered in the center of Ramallah Wednesday night to demand an end to the PA’s sanctions against Gaza. It was the second such demonstration in the span of a week.
Meanwhile, in Israel, the reeling Labor Party may be on the verge of changing leaders again. After almost a year in power marked by a whole lot of nothing, right wing party boss Avi Gabbay could be on the way out if former IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz is recruited to replace him. Gantz wants to get into politics, but it’s unclear which party he plans on joining.
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The Foreign Exchanges Companion 