Turkey after the Istanbul bombing, my latest for LobeLog

In the aftermath of last week’s suicide bombing in Istanbul, I spoke with Gönül Tol, the founding director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute, for LobeLog. Dr. Tol is an expert on Turkish politics and Turkey’s regional activities, plus she’s offered to buy me an authentic Turkish lunch one of these days, so she’s definitely alright in my book. She had quite a bit of insight to offer on what’s been happening in Turkey since November’s snap elections, and what we might expect after the Istanbul attack:

LL: Tuesday’s terrorist attack in Istanbul seems different from previous IS attacks in Turkey, in that it doesn’t seem to have been meant to stoke Kurdish tensions. Talk about the implications of this attack as compared to those previous attacks. Will this attack cause a shift in how Ankara views the IS threat?

Tol: One would think so. This is the fourth IS attack [in Turkey]. But because the previous attacks targeted the Kurds, Turkey didn’t consider them a threat. Still, if you listen to what Erdogan said after the attack, he spent maybe 10 minutes on IS and then started talking about the PKK, so Turkey still considers the PKK the greater threat. But this was an attack on Turkey, and it comes at a time when Turkey is doing more to control the border, something that IS is not happy about. The Islamic State is sending a message to Turkey: you are vulnerable. The government has not come to understand that vulnerability. I’ve never heard a Turkish official who talks about the threat IS poses against Turkish interests in isolation. They always talk about the PKK as well. And that perception hasn’t changed.

Please go check out the whole interview.

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