I’m working on a piece for pay, and not feeling all that well to boot, so in the absence of any more blogging from me today I would encourage you to check out this piece on the India-Pakistan relationship from Mark Krepon at Arms Control Wonk. Although the Iran talks have sucked up most of the oxygen in the “arms control” space for a while now, the nuclear buildup on the subcontinent is disturbing, particularly the buildup in tactical nuclear weapons that could more readily wind up being used or misused:
In the meantime, Pakistan and India are increasing their nuclear arsenals, with Pakistan doing so faster than India. Rawalpindi’s nuclear deterrent includes tactical nuclear weapons of varying kinds, to dissuade New Delhi from carrying out cross-border conventional thrusts in response to another Mumbai-like attack. Since tactical nuclear weapons are the least safe and secure in Pakistan’s arsenal, and since these and longer-range, nuclear-capable launchers will be moved around in the midst of a serious crisis, nuclear risks will grow significantly in the event of another confrontation. Pakistan’s military leaders seem unpersuaded by arguments that mixing tactical nuclear weapons into conventional battle plans is a lousy idea.
Combat between ground forces, backed up by air power, will greatly accentuate the risk that there will be a battlefield nuclear detonation. What might be done to defuse India-Pakistan relations and break the back of the nuclear competition on the subcontinent, the way that Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev broke the back of the superpower nuclear arms race?
I wish I had more time and ability to cover India-Pakistan issues around this place, but at least I can point you to people who are covering it.
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