This must be the hottest trend in geopolitics in the 2010s. Remember when the Russians and the Ukrainians and the Russian separatists in Ukraine cut a ceasefire deal and then kept on firing? Well, their second go at it, in February, seems to be mostly holding for now, so that’s good. On the other hand, in Yemen, the Saudis announced what sure sounded like a ceasefire yesterday, followed by a televised address by President Hadi that sure sounded like he and the Houthis were working on a political agreement to end the whole conflict, and today…the fighting and airstrikes have continued pretty much as before. The Saudis struck Houthi positions near Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city, allegedly after the Houthis and their Saleh-partisan allies attacked a Hadi-aligned Yemeni military detachment there. But, hey, the operation changed its name from “Decisive Storm” to “Restoring Hope,” so that’s, ah, something.
The Houthis are saying they want to talk but won’t until both the coalition air campaign and its naval blockade are ended, but the Saudis are likely going to insist that they reserve the right to strike Houthi targets actively engaged in fighting, and they’re very unlikely to relent on the blockade when that’s the one part of the coalition’s plan that might eventually really twist the Houthis’ arms. So, basically, you can expect things to go on like this for a while longer. Apologies if I got anybody’s hopes up yesterday.
The Foreign Exchanges Companion 