Now this is how you do a political catastrophe. Yemen’s entire cabinet apparently tendered its resignation to President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi earlier today, followed quickly by Hadi himself tendering his resignation to parliament. Hadi cited the deteriorating political situation in the capital, Sanaa, where Houthi rebels have refused to back down despite the fact that their leaders have been trying to negotiate with Hadi for a settlement to their rebellion (crucially, they haven’t released Hadi’s chief of staff, who was taken prisoner on Saturday, despite agreeing to do so). Yemen hasn’t had a vice-president since Hadi left that office to succeed former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2012, so these moves threaten to leave the country without an executive branch. Next in line for the presidency is parliament speaker Yahya al-Rai (ironically a political ally of the ousted-but-still-puttering-around Saleh), though there are now reports that parliament has rejected Hadi’s resignation. Really, this is a mess and it’s entirely unclear what’s actually happening.
This could be a very savvy move on Hadi’s part. The Houthis have been in a position to toss him out of office since September, when they first entered Sanaa. That they haven’t already done so suggests that they saw Hadi as a useful puppet, somebody who could be allowed to remain in power on Houthi terms and under Houthi supervision. But that arrangement cuts both ways, and if Hadi is out of power then the Houthis have no apparent endgame apart from secession or a full-on civil war, neither of which they seem to want (their recent run of great military success aside, a Houthi takeover of the entire country is inconceivable). They could try to work the political system and cut a deal with whoever winds up running the country, but that’s a complicated and uncertain move. The simplest and best outcome for the Houthis is to see Hadi remain in office somehow, but now that he’s shown he’s ready to leave them hanging, they’ll have to negotiate a bit more on his terms.
Or maybe the whole country will fall apart into its constituent parts. That’s what everybody seems to be waiting for.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula stands to benefit from the chaos, unfortunately, since Hadi was a Sunni and his removal from office would likely inflame Sunni anger toward the Houthis and Sanaa in the areas where AQAP is strongest. Or maybe ISIS will be the big beneficiary, if you buy this breathless CNN report that says Jihadi Pepsi is horning in on Jihadi Coke’s Yemen monopoly. There’s a little bit of a problem with it, though:
The Syria-based terror group ISIS is active and recruiting inside the Middle Eastern state of Yemen, already a hotbed of terrorist activity, CNN has learned.
The disturbing information comes from a Yemeni official, who told CNN on Wednesday that ISIS has a presence in at least three provinces in southern and central Yemen, and there is now a “real competition” between ISIS and the Yemen-based terror group al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP.
That competition manifested itself in a gun-battle between the two groups in Yemen’s eastern provinces last month, the same official said, though he did not have specifics on the casualties that resulted from that incident.
CNN cannot independently confirm the claims.
Yeah, so, an anonymous official in a government that’s been known to doctor intel in order to increase and/or direct U.S. military intervention to its own aims tells CNN something that will surely get U.S. interest, but “CNN cannot independently confirm the claims.” Isn’t CNN’s whole, what’s the word I’m looking for, purpose? Yes, that’s good enough. Isn’t CNN’s whole purpose to employ people to independently confirm claims made by public figures in order to present a factual accounting of situations and events to its audience? Maybe I’m unclear on the whole “journalism” thing.
The Foreign Exchanges Companion 